Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Future majorities

A couple of interesting political reads:

"Has the Emerging Democratic Majority Emerged?" by Jonathan Chait, NY Mag.

Excerpt from the latter:
...there is no such thing as a permanent change in American politics. What we’re talking about here is the landscape for a quarter-century or so — anything beyond that is too distant to project. In the long run, interracial marriage and cultural assimilation will make the descendants of today’s Latino voters identify much more closely with the white mainstream, which will make them more amenable to conservatism. But that long run is pretty far off. For the foreseeable future, the decline of the white population is occurring much more rapidly than the weakening identity of the nonwhite population. The Democrats have a party identity that is well suited to this environment; it is the Republicans who will have to adapt.
Me: Kudos to Chait for recognizing, unlike many people who've written about demography lately, that it is unwise to assume permanent allegiance by particular ethnic groups to particular political parties. I'd add that the "long term" he identifies could come sooner or later, depending on how fast the economy grows, how much upward mobility there is, and what party seems to be fostering the growth and mobility.

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