Early last December, over drinks at a midtown bar, I predicted to some friends that the nominees would be McCain and Obama, and that McCain would win the general election. I put this in my notebook, but sadly didn't put any money on the then-counterintuitive proposition. My primary predictions are looking pretty good, though I wouldn't count Clinton out just yet, and I stick with the general-election prediction.
However, that's partly because I can't believe that someone whose career started where mine did -- in the Business International "bullpen" of the 1980s -- will actually get elected president. Obama was there a few years before I was, so I never met him, but we both worked on the Business International Money Report, or BIMR. And I agree with others who worked there that what he later wrote about the place glamorized things considerably.