In my August political analysis at Research magazine, I discuss efforts to predict the outcome of the presidential race. A longish excerpt, with emphasis added at the end:
There you have it. Now, I won't claim great confidence in this prediction, and won't be making any $10,000 bet. But I think the line of reasoning is valid. I've tried to calibrate my thinking to acknowledge some biases of my own. For one thing, I am an enthusiast of debates, so I may be overstating their importance; on the other hand, their importance in the primaries was even greater than I would've guessed. Moreover, I am planning to vote for Romney, as noted in a recent post, but I think that post and other writings should make clear that I'm not exactly brimming with partisan enthusiasm these days, so wishful thinking is plausibly a fairly small factor in shaping my prediction.