Friday, July 20, 2012

Political outlook watch

I'd missed this piece by Conor Friedersdorf, "President Romney Would Not Remain a Conservative." For my part, I think that very expectation, however much Romney might distance himself from it, is an important factor in his chance of winning. I'll have more later this month on the election, whom I expect to win and whom I'll be voting for and why. Meanwhile, here's another item of interest, this one by James Pethokoukis: "The 5 economic stats that will decide the election are all pointing down for Obama." To me, the question of what numbers to look at -- polling data, economic variables, prediction markets -- is thought-provoking, and even more so is the question of whether there are some factors that don't tend to show up in quantitative analyses but could be very important in the race. I think the October debates are such a factor, as I'll discuss later this month.

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