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Sunday, September 9, 2012

Election outlook update

There's a spike in confidence going on among Obama supporters, based on his upswing in the polls post-convention. Nate Silver now puts the president's chance of re-election at 79.8%. Andrew Sullivan gloats about having a "widening smile." Well, maybe they're right but I can think of various reasons why Democrats should be nervous, ranging from the fundraising figures to the October debates to the prospect that people who are confident their side will win sometimes therefore don't bother to vote. (Of course, people who are sure their side will lose may not show up either, which could hurt Romney.)

Since I've already, perhaps unwisely, gotten in the prediction business, I may as well now unveil the map I just created at Real ClearPolitics showing Romney eking out a victory with 275 electoral votes. Strikes me as plausible enough, only a mild extrapolation from the current situation. But in any case, you won't hear me talk about my "widening smile," one because it's smug, and two because it seems to me there are significant pros and cons to the outcome either way. It's fair enough to think one side's better than the other, but it requires some willful blindness not to see real weaknesses on both sides.

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