My
Research magazine "Political Monitor" column for February is now online, and looks at the political prospects of Elizabeth Warren: "
The Warren Effect." Excerpt:
Will Warren win? More likely than not; the race is volatile
and could go either way, but Warren should be considered the favorite.
Massachusetts is a predominantly Democratic state, and her campaign can
be expected to generate a degree of supporter enthusiasm that Brown
would be hard-pressed to match. Brown’s chances depend on a high turnout
by independents.
What impact would a Sen. Warren have? She surely would have
some effect in pressing financial regulators to implement the rules of
Dodd-Frank and other existing laws more aggressively. However, her
ability to do this, or moreover to create any major new legislative
initiative on finance, would be limited by a close balance of power
between Democrats and Republicans in the Senate.
The Senate’s current partisan breakdown is 51 Democrats and 47
Republicans. The 2012 elections put into contention 21 Democratic seats
and just 10 Republican ones, and the 2014 elections involve another 20
Democratic seats and just 13 Republican ones. A Sen. Warren probably
would be part of either a slim majority or a minority during her first
term.
There is also a noteworthy potential for tension between a Sen.
Warren and other Democratic legislators, particularly ones with heavy
backing from the financial industry. In castigating Scott as a recipient
of Wall Street cash, candidate Warren did not mention that topping the Forbes list she cited were New York’s Democratic senators Charles Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand.
Will Warren get elected president in 2016? This is
improbable, as it would require not only beating a Republican, possibly
an incumbent, but also first gaining the Democratic nomination against a
field that may include far more experienced rivals such as Hillary
Clinton and Joe Biden. It would require a Sen. Warren to win over swing
voters while keeping her base enthused, and to thrive on public dislike
for Big Finance while keeping sufficient Wall Street support for the
Democratic Party. Could she do all that? Not likely, though a few more
financial crises and scandals would help.
Whole thing
here.
