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Thursday, June 6, 2013

Number crunching in Trenton

New Jersey politics are going to stay interesting the next few years, well beyond the current Senate scramble and gubernatorial race. I think there's a pretty good chance Chris Christie will run for president in 2016--and no, contrary to the Althouse-Limbaugh conjecture, not as a Democrat. Christie has a 58% approval rating from Republicans, which given the likely awfulness of some of his prospective rivals, gives him a reasonable shot at the GOP nomination. Meanwhile, his 52% approval among Democrats (and same among voters overall) is just the kind of crossover appeal a Republican candidate will need to win a presidential election this decade. Bear in mind that the GOP itself currently has unfavorable ratings around 60% nationwide, so the thought of actually dismissing Christie outright might stir hesitation even among those conservative voters who don't enthuse over him anymore.

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