Below is my
prediction that was written in July. I repost it now aware that things could look different after debates 2 and 3, let alone after the election. Plus, I have to acknowledge that I had some
doubts about the prediction after I wrote it (particularly after Ryan was chosen, which I still think a subpar move). Still, I think it's fair to say, especially in light of
Gallup's results, that I was on to something. (Emphasis added at end.)
Thus, some broad numerical pictures of the race have given a clear,
but not overwhelming, edge to Obama. To be sure, those pictures are
snapshots, and there could be sharp fluctuations in the months ahead in
the polls, prediction markets and forecasting models. The sensitivity of
Silver’s model to a shift in the S&P 500 illustrates the Obama
campaign’s vulnerability to negative economic and financial-market data.
Moreover, quantitative methods carry the risk of obscuring or
downplaying factors that are not readily quantifiable. In the
presidential race, one such factor may be the presidential debates,
scheduled for October. Both Obama and Romney are capable debaters,
albeit ones with somewhat mixed records versus various opponents. In
2008, Obama seemed to win some, lose some versus Hillary Clinton; and to
gain an edge in debating John McCain largely because of McCain’s
limitations as a debater.
The 2012 Republican primaries featured an unprecedented number of
debates. These encounters had major impacts on the race—undermining Rick
Perry, for instance, and for a time aiding Newt Gingrich. Moreover,
they gave Romney intensive practice at such encounters.
By contrast, President Obama goes into this fall’s debates without
recent debating experience (except mock exercises with supporters) but
now with an extensive White House record to defend. He also has a
reputation for eloquence that will raise expectations that he will
perform well in debates, and yet as president he also has had some
tendency to seem thin-skinned in response to criticism.
It seems plausible that Romney will benefit considerably from this
fall’s debates. Moreover, such a prospect—involving unique, personal
interactions that have not taken place yet—is the sort of thing that
likely would not get adequately taken into account in polls, prediction
markets and forecasting models, showing up only after the fact.
Prediction: The debates will matter and push poll numbers Romney’s
way. But let’s go out on a limb. Prediction: Romney is going to win the
election.
Full article
here.
