Meanwhile on Russian TV

Kudos to James Kirchick.


Afterwards, the network called the taxi company taking him to the airport and told them to leave him by the highway.

Film note: Emperor

This movie, Emperor, was interesting, in its narrative and visuals, but I wouldn't put much stock in it as a history; and while Tommy Lee Jones is always fun to watch, he didn't show much similarity to MacArthur.

A decade ago, I wrote a piece for what was then called Tech Central Station arguing for MacArthur's relevance to what was then called the War on Terror. My drawing of that connection, in retrospect, looks pretty strained, though the MacArthur speech passage on science that I quoted is worth reading.

Bridge over the Delaware River

I thought this was the Roebling Delaware Aqueduct when I took this photo yesterday, but it doesn't look like pictures I find online of the Roebling Delaware Aqueduct. So either it's a trick of vantage point, or I just got the wrong bridge.

In any case, for those visiting the Upper Delaware River area, Sylvania Tree Farm is highly recommended. (And I am sure that's where we stayed.)

Post-divorce struggles in Ohio

Maybe the topic below has made me more attuned than usual to human folly, but here (via Overlawyered) is the grimly absorbing story of an endlessly acrimonious divorced couple in Ohio, followed by a contentious comments section including acerbic defensiveness from the article's writer.

Trial by blog post [updated]

There has been remarkable turmoil sweeping through organized skepticism (and the overlapping movement of organized atheism) in recent days. Attempting to provide an overview of all this is a task beyond my time and patience, though this is worth a look especially for background. Interested readers can trace one strand of this story here, here and here, and another here, here, here and here.

I am agnostic on a number of important issues involved, not least the validity of the accusations and whether they represent widespread problems in organized skepticism. But I do have one strong opinion on the conflict between P.Z. Myers and Michael Shermer, which is that Myers did an extremely reckless and malign thing by posting the accusation against Shermer on his blog. If Myers thought the woman's claims credible and had wanted to do something responsible, he would have helped her find a lawyer (and possibly private investigator) in order to ascertain whether her assertions could be substantiated in any way and whether she had any recourse in criminal or civil law (the idea that it was too late to do anything merited a professional opinion before being accepted at face value).

That instead Myers chose to plaster the accusation onto the Internet indicates a distinct and appalling lack of that thing ... what's it called?... critical thinking. Also lacking was any sense of fairness or foresight. And left totally unclear, of course, is whether the accusation has any validity at all. Trial by blog post is a 21st century innovation that one hopes will be abandoned by a more enlightened future.

Note: I have had tenuous connections to the people mentioned. I fact checked Shermer's column at Scientific American for several years around 2005-10 (in which capacity I communicated with him mostly through email and never met him in person) and I have also reviewed one of his books. As for Myers, I had lunch with him and two other people while attending a Seed magazine conference in around 2006, though I can't recall anything particularly noteworthy being discussed.

UPDATE 10/6/14: I've belatedly noticed that there's now more out about this story. See this piece at Buzzfeed and Shermer's statement (PDF). It's still not clear to me what happened in this matter, but at least now there's a name to the accuser and some details to be argued about. As for the wider picture, this has become (more clearly than it initially was) about organized atheism as such more than about the (overlapping but largely distinct) movement of organized skepticism. Being an Episcopalian (however liberal theologically), I have little interest in what happens to organized atheism.

Paterson's waterfall

Here's where Alexander Hamilton sought to jump-start industrial development in America. I stopped by early yesterday evening.

Great Falls of the Passaic River, 8/7/13

Some Hamilton links: "A Tale of Origins"; "Founding Father of Finance"; "Debt Debate: What Would Hamilton Do?"; "At Hamilton's Tomb."

A different (and bigger) waterfall: "Canal research: Cohoes."

The GOP does not need fewer debates

First, let me admit a bias: I love debates--including participating in them, watching them, and writing about them. So, I must acknowledge that my aversion to a recent push in the GOP for fewer primary debates next time around arises partly from concern about my personal entertainment in 2016. Still, there is more to be said about this than that. I bring up the topic in response to this Salon piece "Republicans' desperate plan to hide its clowns," by Alex Pareene. Opening:

Reince Priebus, the head of the Republican National Committee, has told NBC and CNN that they will not be allowed to have any Republican presidential debates in 2016 if they go ahead and air planned films about Hillary Clinton, who will likely be the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination. That is the reason he gave them, at least, but it is not really the actual reason Priebus wants to not have any debates on those two channels. The real reason, everyone knows and sort of acknowledges, is that debates were a disaster for the party in 2012, an endless circus made up entirely of clowns on a national tour of shame.

These debates were on TV, people watched (and mocked) them, and the real candidates, the ones the money people were counting on to win the stupid race, were forced to say unacceptable things to appeal to raging loons. Furthermore, the serious candidates looked less serious simply by sharing a stage with Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain. So: Fewer debates, next time, is the plan, and these Hillary movies are a convenient reason to cancel on two of the big networks. (Do you know how I know that the Hillary Clinton movies aren’t the real reason? Media Matters’ David Brock would also like the networks to cancel these movies, because let’s be honest they probably won’t be entirely flattering.)

Me: It seems quite plausible that Priebus's motive here is indeed to reduce the numbers of debates, and that this stems from a perception that the events are damaging to the party's electoral chances. In my opinion, that perception is wrong. Consider two points:

1. Whatever effect the debates had in foregrounding "non-serious" candidates, the events also had a winnowing effect in helping remove from the race candidates whose views, rhetoric and preparation could not hold up under scrutiny. The obvious example here is Rick Perry, who showed himself in debate to be a low-information candidate (a conclusion not exclusively dependent on his "oops" moment). Whatever benefits Herman Cain and Michelle Bachmann got from the attention high of the debates (future speaking fees? talk radio gigs?) were more than counterbalanced by their inability to appear as serious candidates on a stage. (By the way, Pareene is unfair in lumping Newt Gingrich in with the fringe candidates. I have shown that I'm no Gingrich fan, but a former speaker of the House who once led the party to vast political gains ought not to be dismissed with an empty snort.)

2. The debates gave Mitt Romney practice, helping him be a better debater. This was glaringly obvious in his first debate with Barack Obama, who was clearly badly out of practice himself. Was it enough? Obviously, no. Obama regained his stride in subsequent debates, and of course debates were not the only factors shaping the Election Day outcome. But woe betide the Republican Party if it concludes that sheltering its candidates from debates is the key to future electoral success.

What can we learn from 19th century canals?

Here's one reason I find the Erie Canal interesting: the 19th century history of canal building contains elements that can unsettle both the left and right of the current day. On one hand, the private sector conspicuously failed to connect the Great Lakes to the Hudson River. On the other hand, the federal government declined to do it, so it was a state project. On a third hand, New York State built most of the Erie Canal by hiring private contractors to do the building. On one hand, this state project was a huge success. On the other hand, other states that imitated it encountered a great deal of failure.

It's a complex history that doesn't lend itself to easy slogans about government or the free market. Still, people try to employ it for their political ends. Here's a piece in the WSJ by Larry Schweikart and Burton Folsom on "Obama's False History of Public Investment." The piece has this subhead: "Entrepreneurs built our roads, rails and canals far better than government did." Then when you read the article, it contains a very brief overview of canal history:

America's 19th-century canal-building mania is now largely forgotten, but it is the granddaddy of misguided infrastructure-spending tales. Steamboats, first perfected by Robert Fulton in 1807, chugged along on all major rivers before states began using funds to build canals and harbors. Congress tried to get the federal government involved by passing a massive canal and road-building bill in 1817, but President James Madison vetoed it. New York responded by building the Erie Canal—a relatively rare success story. Most state-supported canals lost money, and Pennsylvania in 1857 and Ohio in 1861 finally sold their canal systems to private owners.

In Ohio, when the canals were privatized, one newspaper editor wrote: "Everyone who observes must have learned that private enterprise will execute a work with profit, when a government would sink dollars by the thousand." 

Me: The above is accurate as far as it goes, but it doesn't amount to "Entrepreneurs built our ... canals far better than government did." Canal building was mostly done by government, for better and worse. The financial troubles faced by many canals other than Erie, manifested in the Panic of 1837, spurred a turning away from government infrastructure for the rest of the 19th century, such that the railroads were built by the private sector (although government helped in various ways to make this happen). In the 20th century, the pendulum swung back toward government infrastructure projects, albeit with plenty of wobbling back and forth over the decades. It's also worth pointing out that what worked well in, say, 1825 may or may not be the best model for what should be done in 2013.

Fact checking a novel: Brad Thor's Hidden Order

I noticed recently an uptick in traffic on searches such as "Is the Fed private?" Further research suggests this has to do with the publication of Brad Thor's novel Hidden Order: A Thriller, which my impromptu investigation reveals to be aimed at cramming every lurid, anti-Federal Reserve conspiracy theory into an easy-read format. I can't speak to whether this novel is thrilling, but I can tell you it's not a reliable information source. Excerpt:


A lot of staples of anti-Fed literature are in the above passage, making it rife with error and exaggeration. The notion that the Fed is "private" reflects a confusion that stems from the fact that the Fed's regional banks are nominally privately owned. Banks own shares in the regional Fed banks, but these shares are not tradable, and the profits mainly go to the U.S. Treasury. Essentially, what this means is banks are required to park some money with the Fed, rather than "owning" the Fed in any sense that gives effective control. Moreover, it is the Fed's Board of Governors, not the regional banks, that has the last word on policy; and the Board of Governors, the members of which are appointed by the president with the consent of Congress, is clearly a federal agency.

As for audits, the word "thorough" does a lot of work in Thor's passage. The Fed is subject to various audits but I guess none "thorough" enough for the purpose of abolishing it. The Fed does not operate in "total secrecy" but rather publishes minutes of its meetings after the fact. The Fed is designed to have "independence," which is to say a degree of insulation from short-term political pressures. The goal is that Fed policymakers should be focused on the longer term and the national interest, not what monetary policies are most conducive to getting incumbent politicians reelected.

The supposed 96% decline in the dollar's purchasing power is a misleading abstraction, as I discussed here. The alleged stability of the 19th century economy when there was no central bank overlooks the many severe crises during that time. The elimination of America's first central banks had various negative consequences; what stemmed from abolishing the First Bank of the United States I discussed here, and elimination of the Second Bank is in many ways an even grimmer story.

Now, of course, it's only a novel. Sadly, though, it will reinforce much misguided thinking. Consider, for instance, this breathless account in Glenn Beck's The Blaze. Excerpt:

On Glenn Beck’s radio program Tuesday, coinciding with the book’s release date, Thor revealed the agency behind “Hidden Order”: the Federal Reserve.

Wow. Thanks for the revelation, Thor. For further reading, besides the links above, I recommend my piece "The Fed and Its Enemies."

Flora and fauna of the firmament—Part 2

An ongoing look at the life-forms that we might find on recently discovered exoplanets.

The Mysterious Activity on Super-Earth HD 97658 b

Purple night falls on the lone world circling the star HD 97658 some 70 light-years away. Under the blazing magenta daylight cast by this K-type main-sequence star, and during the frigid, 87-month-long indigo-dark nights, a system of pipelines grows, extending through the thick atmosphere and into the rocky soil. The mysterious conduits apparently connect somewhere, but Earthbound observers have not been able to determine what they carry, and why. Perhaps they funnel fuel—or maybe air or water.

A more speculative theory suggests it is an attempt by the builders, globular life-forms (pictured here), to develop a system of tubes—a version of the Internet. Although these beings appear highly intelligent, having developed an advanced technological civilzation, they have apparently and amazingly accomplished it without the ability to social network.

During twilight, the creatures emit a greenish glow
that seems to signify cocktail-hour-like festivities.

Supporting a complex society that, it is believed, has works far beyond human achievements, super-Earth HD 97658 b’s dominant life-form has created a truly alien culture. As on Earth, microscopic life here evolved into intelligence, had an industrial revolution but then took a divergent path into an existence deprived of Facebook, Pinterest, Tumblr, Twitter, Vine—even a blogosphere. Scientists remain baffled as to how they could have created a civilization that does not rely on continuous access to e-mail, texts podcasts and streaming video, thereby lacking the ability to tweet, Instagram, Pin-It, and blog. It has been suggested that because of this deprivation, their unchecked attention spans and ability to see in the long run have resulted in the completion of projects such as establishing unlimited renewable energy and an economic system that provides ample sustenance and health for all complete with a four-day work week and five-weeks paid vacation—and birthdays off, too.

HD 97658 b’s denizens also have an ongoing space program and have colonized neighboring star systems. Intercepted broadcasts also suggest they have a time-wasting tendency toward deep intellectual conversations and learning by reading detailed literary works that fill the void in a bleak world that does not know the joy of life-hacking, Google/Wikipedia searches, Angry Birds, Top 10 anything lists, blog rants, viral YouTube cat videos and 15-minute hashtag-based news cycles. The mystery of why this species has survived under such harsh conditions will remain, scientists say, until their approaching fleet of starships reaches Earth sometime around 2036. It is hoped that on arrival we will be able to offer our ability to gain instant gratification in exchange for whatever techno trinkets they may have to offer us, although it is hard to envision how giving away the secret of our Internet in exchange for something like star drive, teleportation or even the chance to barter for our freedom from annexation into their stark, sensory-deprived empire could get us the better end of the deal in such an exchange.

The diagram above depicts an interpretation of high-intensity laser signals picked up from the vicinity of the advancing fleet. Experts think it is an attempt to communicate via visual symbology. Linguistic and symbol analysis suggest they are attempting to diagram some kind of social network, a primitive analogue of "Liking" our civilization and humanity’s amazing accomplishment.

Flora and Fauna of the Firmament is a satirical collaboration featuring illustrations by Ken Silber and descriptions by Michael Battaglia. Cross-posted at Quicksilber and Beige Matter. Part 1 is here.

Gold investing even if it's not pure-strain

This blog has long had a tendency to attract seekers of the highly esoteric asset class known as pure-strain gold. The nonexistence of same is probably a good reason to avoid including it in your portfolio, but lest it be said that I am uniformly negative on all matters related to precious metals, I offer (a) Greg Mankiw's thoughtful and moderately receptive assessment of gold investing and (b) a panel discussion on commodity (including gold) ETFs that I moderated as part of my Research magazine job (which is unrelated to this blog); the Web event will be available until Oct. 23 and registration is free.

Film note: The Secret of Kells

This is a wonderful and fascinating animated film: The Secret of Kells. It's from 2009 but I hadn't heard of it before happening across a DVD at a store recently. Trailer here:

It takes place in 8th century Ireland and is a fictional tale about the creation of the Book of Kells; as such, it also appealed to my interest in Celtic Christianity. The animation gives a sense of bringing an illuminated manuscript to life, and also explores other exotic visual territory; for instance, some of the scenes reminded me of cellular organelles in motion. I highly recommend this film, with the caveat that it has nightmarish imagery that could disturb small children. (I watched it alone.) About.com suggests ages 7+, though that's a year or two higher than I'd have said.

Bruce Lee retro

What I published 10 years ago, minus a day: "Remember the Dragon," at National Review. Excerpt:

It has been three decades since the untimely death on July 20, 1973 of Bruce Lee, the martial-arts expert and movie star. The “dragon” (as he is known for his starring role in the film Enter the Dragon) has long been a cult hero to fans of martial-arts movies. But Lee deserves broader recognition for his contributions to American culture and society.

Lee served, in fact, as an important counterpoint to some of the negative cultural and social trends that were ascendant in the years when he attained fame. At a time when crime was soaring, Lee developed and popularized techniques that ultimately would help millions improve their self-defense abilities. In the face of a counterculture that derided self-discipline, Lee stood as a veritable embodiment of that virtue. In contrast to the pious (and often hypocritical) pacifism that arose against the Vietnam War, Lee’s films were a reminder that force can be legitimate depending on how and why it is used.

I've always had a pretty wide range of interests, for better and occasionally worse. My interest in martial arts goes back almost to when Lee was alive.

Rocket science politics in New Jersey

I have doubts about the effectiveness of this ad.

 

The problems are (1) unlike in the 1950s, the atomic power/electrons orbiting nucleus imagery doesn't necessarily convey to many people something positive and cutting-edge; (2) while it would be good to have more scientifically knowledgeable policymakers, the suggestion that someone has smart ideas about Social Security and other non-science issues by virtue of being a scientist, makes for an odd combo of intellectual braggadocio and non-sequitur.

Anyway, Congressman Rush Holt, a physicist (he was one of the top people at the Princeton Plasma Physics Lab, which researches nuclear fusion) is running against Newark Mayor Cory Booker in the special primary election Aug. 13. Some others are running, but Booker is the overwhelming favorite, unless apathy amid summer doldrums precipitates an upset; which I doubt. Glenn Greenwald, taking a break from some mildly controversial things he's been doing lately, has endorsed Holt.

On the Republican side, the primary pits heavily favored two-time gubernatorial primary loser Steve Lonegan against little-known physician Alieta Eck. Neither has displayed any talent for reaching out beyond the Republican base, and so a GOP victory in the October special election is highly unlikely.

Book note: The Founders at Home

Review copy requested: The Founders at Home: The Building of America, 1735-1817, by Myron Magnet. Myron was my editor back when (nearly two decades ago) I wrote for City Journal about the New York waterfront, the New York State Legislature and other subjects. He's a demanding editor but one who often got good results from writers, and I expect his own writing will show similar exactingness. Before I knew him in the City Journal capacity, I wrote about him and his book The Dream and the Nightmare for Insight magazine: "A Magnet to Lift the Poor."

UPDATE 11/17/13: More here.

Space travel window

From an article about, and interview with, Elon Musk:

He was influenced, he says, by Isaac Asimov's Foundation series, a science fiction saga in which a galactic empire falls and ushers in a dark age. "It's sort of a futuristic version of Gibbon's Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. Let's say you were at the peak of the Roman empire, what would you do, what action could you take, to minimise decline?"

It takes me a moment to realise it's not a rhetorical question. Um, poison the barbarians' water supply, I joke. Musk smiles and shakes his head. The answer is in technology. "The lessons of history would suggest that civilisations move in cycles. You can track that back quite far – the Babylonians, the Sumerians, followed by the Egyptians, the Romans, China. We're obviously in a very upward cycle right now and hopefully that remains the case. But it may not. There could be some series of events that cause that technology level to decline. Given that this is the first time in 4.5bn years where it's been possible for humanity to extend life beyond Earth, it seems like we'd be wise to act while the window was open and not count on the fact it will be open a long time."

Me: As I've mentioned, I'm writing a book about DeWitt Clinton and the Erie Canal. And it seems to me there's an analogy between 19th century canal building and 21st century space travel: There's a window to do something, and that window will close at an unknown time. National borders and cultural diffusions that seem inevitable in retrospect were anything but; if the window had closed, something very different would have resulted.

Capsule review: Europa Report

What an extended exercise in tedium this movie was.


Europa Report was about 90 minutes long but gave the impression of some kind of relativistic time extension, even with the expedient of pressing the fast-forward on the remote in the Delaware hotel room where this sci-fi "thriller" cost $19.99 [!] on pay-per-view. I appreciate the film's earnestness in seeking some scientific verisimilitude and making a premise out of the idea that lakes on Europa, discovered in 2011, could be an environment for life. But with slow pacing, a disjointed story line, a distinct lack of character development (painfully evident once the characters start to die off and you try to remember what they did while alive) and a ponderous use of the "found footage" gimmick, this bit of hard sci-fi will be an ordeal for sentient organisms on Earth.

At Hamilton's tomb

Today I attended a remembrance service for Alexander Hamilton. Here was the scene at his tombstone at Trinity Church 209 years (minus about 45 minutes) after his death.

The graveside event was followed by a speech inside the church by author/historian Thomas Fleming, which was filmed by C-SPAN and focused on Hamilton's career achievements (rather than the duel). Fleming had many interesting points to make, including a suggestion that if New York had remained the U.S. capital, as Hamilton wanted, there would have been no Civil War. Fleming also had a couple of negative mentions of George Clinton, so there was a direct tie-in to my Clinton family research.

Sex, lighting and other hot-button issues

I watched with interest the fracas at Ann Althouse's blog over men's rights, women's rights, abortion, child support, etc., wherein Althouse was at odds with Instapundit blogger Glenn Reynolds. This contentiousness was largely, albeit implicitly, over Reynolds' wife Helen Smith's book Men on Strike, which I reviewed here. Althouse's decision to suspend comments on her blog, after some incivilities, is understandable. On the other hand, it has the disadvantage that there's now no instantaneous mechanism for readers to alert Althouse that her euphoria about the House blocking lamp efficiency standards will be short-lived, as the legislation is sure to die in the Senate, as Kevin Drum notes here.

The lamp issue (having married into the lighting design world, I'll use the pro terminology, which avoids "bulbs" especially for things not bulb-shaped) has some similarity to the men/women debate, in that there's an incredible amount of "heat" relative to the amount of "light" or accurate information, and one can find deviations from reality and good sense on both sides of many flareups. One good thing about having a relatively obscure blog is that when you do get comments, you have more time to figure out if they're coming from crazy people.

Readers will note that my blog has been relatively inactive lately. That's partly because I've been particularly busy with other projects, and partly because--maybe it's the summer heat--my appetite for political debate, by which I mean rancorous political acrimony, is a bit diminished lately. That will probably change, but the good news in the meantime is that more speculative illustrations of alien life are coming soon.

Flora and fauna of the firmament—Part 1

When we get a better look at exoplanets, here are some of the life-forms we may find:

The Spiroplatnapi of Gliese 667 c

This artist's conception depicts the kind of intelligent life-form that may inhabit one of three "super-Earth" planets circling the red M dwarf star Gliese 667 c. Here we see a spirosplatnapus, a giant fishlike creature evolved to ply a planetary sea consisting of a soupy, aromatic hydrocarbon stew that to a human taste bud would suggest a hint of nectarine yogurt overlaying a base of heavy crankcase oil. It and the organism resembling a tar ball attached to what seems to be its head represent two of the species's 137 genders.

In order to procreate, all 137 spiroplatnapus sexes must copulate simultaneously in one coordinated 20-hour insemination frenzy in correct sequence via each gender's numerous and specifically evolved orifices, phalli and glands. Although all genders are fertile and, once impregnated, can produce offspring, the complex arrangements necessary to meet, date, match and mate have precluded successful procreation among the members of this busy, pragmatic species. The one time when all genders managed to coordinate a somewhat unruly ménage à 137 and reach the foreplay stage, the 17-clawed, 100-meter-long Gender 67 spiroplatnapus released its thorny sucker pincers, reared back and, with its 27,000 compound eyes tearing up, revealed it was unable to live a lie, confessing that it was only responsive to love that could be returned by other Gender 67s.

In its entire history, reproduction has been accomplished exactly zero times, and the only thing preventing extinction so far is the organism's multi-Earth-century life span. Scientists think only with the technological development of some kind of online speed-dating system that the species could shorten the arduous dating/courting/mating process to less than an Earth decade. But prospects remain dim—as most of the Gliesian spirosplatnapus genders agree, it's just so hard to meet anyone from Gender 122 that isn't a total creep.

Flora and Fauna of the Firmament is a satirical collaboration featuring illustrations by Ken Silber and descriptions by Michael Battaglia. Cross-posted at Quicksilber and Beige Matter.